AGI Timeline

Key milestones in the journey towards Artificial General Intelligence

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1950

Turing Test Proposed

Alan Turing proposes the Turing Test as a measure of machine intelligence.

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2012

Deep Learning Revolution

Deep neural networks achieve breakthrough performance in image recognition with AlexNet.

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2017

Transformer Architecture

Google publishes 'Attention Is All You Need', introducing the Transformer architecture that would revolutionize NLP.

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2022

ChatGPT & Generative AI

OpenAI releases ChatGPT, bringing large language models to the mainstream and sparking a global AI race.

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2023

GPT-4 & Multimodal AI

GPT-4 demonstrates advanced reasoning across text and images. Google launches Gemini. First AI Safety Summit held at Bletchley Park.

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2024

Reasoning Models Emerge

OpenAI releases o1, the first 'reasoning' model (74% on AIME vs GPT-4o's 12%). Geoffrey Hinton wins Nobel Prize in Physics. EU AI Act enters into force.

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2025

The AGI Race Accelerates

DeepSeek R1 shakes global markets ($6M training vs ~$100M for GPT-4). GPT-5 launches. Gemini Deep Think achieves IMO gold medal. World models emerge with DeepMind Genie 3 and World Labs' Marble. Yann LeCun leaves Meta to found AMI Labs. Global AI investment exceeds $365B.

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2026

Convergence at the Frontier

Four frontier models launch in 23 days: Gemini 3.1 Pro, GPT-5.4 (1M context), Grok 4.20, and Mistral Small 4. Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 lead agentic coding. MCP crosses 97M installs. AI agents autonomously complete 4+ hour tasks. Global AI spending hits $2.5 trillion. Experts predict AGI by 2027-2028.